BMC polls: Sharad Pawar to meet Sonia and Rahul Gandhi for united MVA-MNS front

MUMBAI: In what can be assumed to be the biggest dilemma for Sharad Pawar, the Mumbai unit of the Congress has decided to go solo in the BMC elections. Pawar is considered the architect of the MVA alliance and it was Pawar who was instrumental in bringing the Congress and the UBT group – then the undivided Shiv Sena together to form an alliance and form the government in Maharashtra.

According to reports, the Congress party has formally declared that it will contest the upcoming BMC elections independently and will not remain part of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) if the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) is included in the alliance.

Pawar on the other hand wants all parties on the same platform and hopes the Congress will relent. He is even considering meeting Sonia and Rahul Gandhi to stitch together a formidable alliance which will include the Raj Thackeray MNS faction. According to Pawar, staying together will give the MVA-MNS combine a strong edge over the Mahayuti combine.

A detailed ward-level assessment based on the 2024 assembly election results indicates that the MVA can cross the majority figure of 114 seats in the 227-member Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation only if MNS becomes a part of the opposition coalition and gives a combined and consolidated fight with the other allies.

On its own, the MVA is expected to reach less than 94 corporator seats, whereas the Mahayuti is projected to secure around 133 seats — giving the ruling alliance a comfortable edge. But if the MNS joins hands with the MVA — a formula that Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP (Sharad Pawar) seem eager to finalize — the equation changes significantly. According to ward wise mapping of assembly votes compiled by political parties using Election Commission data, a combined MVA–MNS front would have led in 116 wards, while Mahayuti’s tally would have dropped to 111, falling short of the majority mark, say media reports.

Analysts point out that if the MVA disintegrates and Congress goes solo, minority votes are likely to get fragmented, which will weaken all – the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP (SP). This could give the ruling Mahayuti a major additional advantage in multiple key wards, wherein the Muslim and Christian votes will get split in a three-way pattern.

Assembly polling data also highlights the vote influence of the MNS. In 22 wards, the number of votes polled by MNS was higher than the winning margin of Mahayuti, meaning that in a triangular contest, the presence of MNS helped Mahayuti secure victory by splitting opposition votes. Additionally, in six wards, the difference between Mahayuti and MVA was below 500 votes, making MNS a decisive factor in close battles.